Waste Management Forecasting for EU Member States Considering Demographic Development

abstract

en

The Circular Economy Package approved by the EU sets targets for waste treatment. Sub-targets need to be met at the level of each EU state. The level of waste management varies significantly from one state to another and therefore has different starting position. The forecast of waste production and treatment is essential information for the expected future EU targets fulfilment. If waste treatment does not meet the targets under the current conditions, it is necessary to change waste management strategies. This contribution presents a universal approach for forecasting waste production and treatment using freely available data. The approach is based on the trend analysis with the subsequent data reconciliation. Expected demographic development of is taken into account. The results show that most states will not meet EU targets with current trend of waste management in time. Presented methodology is suitable basis for strategic planning at the national and transnational level.

The Circular Economy Package approved by the EU sets targets for waste treatment. Sub-targets need to be met at the level of each EU state. The level of waste management varies significantly from one state to another and therefore has different starting position. The forecast of waste production and treatment is essential information for the expected future EU targets fulfilment. If waste treatment does not meet the targets under the current conditions, it is necessary to change waste management strategies. This contribution presents a universal approach for forecasting waste production and treatment using freely available data. The approach is based on the trend analysis with the subsequent data reconciliation. Expected demographic development of is taken into account. The results show that most states will not meet EU targets with current trend of waste management in time. Presented methodology is suitable basis for strategic planning at the national and transnational level.

Waste production, waste treatment, municipal solid waste, forecasting, Circular Economy Package

10.10.2021

1847-7178

166–166

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